Are you currently wearing a FitBit or Garmin activity tracker, or some brand of smartwatch? Turns out a growing number of individuals are answering “yes” to this question. According to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Wearable Device Tracker, a combination of device releases, price reductions and company rationalizations marked the first quarter of 2016 in the worldwide wearables market, leading to an increase of 67.2% from the 11.8 million units shipped in 1Q15.
In January, we summarized an outlook on the future of wearables, specifically in relation to the need for consumers and companies to protect the data collected, stored and disseminated on these devices. Now, though sales continue to trend strong, it does appear that some of the hype about these devices is waning and the technologies behind them are becoming more commoditized. So what should we expect the fate of wearables to look like in terms of their physical form?
A recent eWEEK article titled “Wearables Hype Fading, Future Devices to Take New Forms: Report” by Todd R. Weiss covers insights just released in IDTechEx’s Wearable Technology 2016-2026–Markets, Players and 10-Year Forecasts report. Below is an excerpt of the findings.
In 2016, the global market for wearables is worth more than $30 billion, with more than $11 billion of that coming from smartwatches, fitness trackers and similar devices, according to the report. Through 2018, IDTechEx expects the global market to grow 10 percent annually to more than $40 billion, followed by a rise of 23 percent to more than $100 billion by 2023. By 2026, the growth rate in wearables will slow to 11 percent, reaching a total of more than $150 billion a year, the report states. The study includes some 39 types of wearable product lines, including smartwatches, fitness trackers, smart eyewear, smart clothing, medical devices, headphones, hearing aids, basic electronic watches and more ….
Wrist-worn fitness trackers are still selling well, with global wholesale sales of about $1.5 billion today, but average retail prices have been falling by about 50 percent every six months over the last two years due to commoditization, the study states.
Wearables that have a positive future, according to the report, include VR and augmented-reality (AR) devices, as well as “mixed-reality devices that cross between the two.” More than 1 million VR devices will be sold in 2016 around the globe, and the market is expected to grow at a rate of 73 percent through 2020, the report states. AR devices trail in adoption and technology, but are expected to grow into millions of sales by 2019 and tens of millions by 2021.
Smartwatches are hampered in the marketplace because they continue to be tied to smartphones for many of their capabilities, the report states. “Increasingly, we believe that smartwatches will move away from being a smartphone periphery and move towards being their own interchangeable device within a wider ecosystem of devices.”
With all of this turbulence in the marketplace, that’s where stand-alone personal wearable communication devices will come in, James Hayward, a co-author of the study, told eWEEK ….
“It could be a watch, or it could be a box” that uses a radio beacon to link a user’s data and personal information to their device at all times,” he said …. The wearable communication device would essentially be a hub that can be worn or carried by a user, said Hayward. “We deliberately keep the definition fairly broad” since it could eventually take a wide variety of forms as they are created.
Looks like for now, we’ll just have to see where the future of wearables will take us.
